ECONOMY / FIRST POST-BLAST SURVEY : Confidence hits five-month low

ECONOMY / FIRST POST-BLAST SURVEY : Confidence hits five-month low.

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

Thai consumer confidence has dropped as a result of the recent bombings in Bangkok, leaving the index in mid-January at a five-month low. According to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce into the impact of the bombings, the consumer confidence index (CCI) plummeted in the first half of this month to 80.1 compared to 82.4 for the full month of December and 83.1 in November last year.

The survey was conducted among 842 residents of Bangkok and surrounding provinces. Confidence in the overall economy for the period dropped to 74.3, with confidence in job opportunities down to 75.6 and the index on future income down to 90.5.

In December, confidence in the overall economy was equivalent to 76.5, down from 77.2 in November and 77.7 in October. The index for job opportunities was 76.5, compared with 78.1 and 78.4 in the two previous months, and the index on future income declined to 93.2 from 94.2 and 94.4 in November and October respectively.

The CCI is a set of indices measuring public sentiment with regard to the overall economy, job opportunities and future income.

Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the university's Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, said all indices had fallen to a new low, reflecting a huge impact from the attacks on consumer confidence. Mr Thanavath added that consumer confidence would definitely be shaken if more bombings occurred.

According to the researcher, Thai consumer confidence was also being affected by several ongoing factors such as the delay to government megaprojects, the interest-rate trend, the government's measures to address the bombings, and controversial amendments to the Foreign Business Act.

''The drop in the CCI in the first half of this month is not only because of the bombings, but also the government's unclear economic policies and tough capital controls of the Bank of Thailand to rein in the baht's strength, as well as other factors,'' said Mr Thanavath.

''We hope the situation will get better in the second half,'' he added.

Another survey conducted by the university on Gross Domestic Happiness showed that the GDH index had increased to 101 in December from 99.8 in November, with the index measuring future happiness increasing to 105.6 from 102.8.

However, the survey has yet to include the post-bombing period.

Bangkok Post
Friday January 12, 2007