Burma's top dictator nearing the end

Burma's state-run propaganda machine has been working overtime since junta leader General Than Shwe returned from a two-week hospital stay in Singapore earlier this month - to counter mounting evidence that the ageing military chief is no longer fit for office.

In the past two weeks, photos of Than Shwe chairing meetings and mingling with foreign dignitaries have made the front page of the New Light of Myanmar newspaper almost every day, while footage of him chairing the quarterly State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) meeting has been aired on state television.

In both the footage and photos Than Shwe looks fairly robust. But the carefully managed media appearances have done little to quell reports from among Burma's political elite that the senior general is far from fit.

One source close to the top military leader told The Nation that Than Shwe had been flown to Singapore for extensive tests on December 31 last year after his personal physicians became concerned that he was suffering from intestinal cancer. Despite being cleared of the disease, Than Shwe remained in hospital until January 12 - the leader's longest stretch outside Burma for several years.

"It came out that the illness was not as serious [as cancer] but still he was away for some time. This is quite significant," said the source close to Than Shwe, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Burma's top general is a diabetic and suffers from hypertension and minor heart problems, which have long caused him complications.

Than Shwe's sudden hospitalisation resulted in him missing the January 4 Independence Day celebrations in Burma for the first time in his 15-year stint as head of the SPDC. Analysts and pundits pounced and speculation quickly spread that he was dying.

Still more evidence of Than Shwe's declining health came to light when reports emerged that he made only brief appearances at the quarterly commanders' and SPDC meetings held last week in Naypyidaw. While deceptive photos of him chairing the event have been splashed all over the official press, seasoned Burma-watchers have not been fooled. Senior Thailand-based Burma analyst Win Min said Than Shwe had also been absent from his daily duties for some time.

"We know that for about four or five months already he has been staying home and only attending meetings once a week or once a month. His health has really deteriorated," Win Min said.

This news has caused intense debate among analysts over who he entrusted control of his office to in his absence. According to sources close to the military among Rangoon's high-society circles, Than Shwe's long-time protege and potential successor General Thura Shwe Mann has almost certainly taken his place at the helm. Shwe Mann the only member of the SPDC's top cabinet without a clearly defined portfolio, and he is also Than Shwe's most important ally in the fight to stop second-in-command Deputy Senior General Maung Aye from seizing power.

"Shwe Mann is now doing most of Than Shwe's job but he is still required to defer to Maung Aye and [prime minister] Soe Win on important issues and some decisions," Win Min said.

Earlier predictions of Than Shwe and Maung Aye stepping down - but not entirely out - in favour of Shwe Mann appear, at least on initial inspection, to be correct. And the stage seems set for the two top generals to hand over the military's reins in favour of civilian roles at the head of a heavily renovated SPDC.

Plans to rename the ruling body the State Democracy and Development Council are still being floated and the ongoing National Convention to draft a new Burmese constitution - first set up in 1993 - is expected to finally come to an end in the next 12 months.

Sources close to the military elite say Maung Aye has also been spending little time tending to his official duties. "This is at the orders of Than Shwe. He wants Maung Aye to stay away from power too," Win Min said.

It would seem that everything is going according to plan. Except, of course, for Than Shwe's continued inability to control his two subordinates and put the threat of a coup from Maung Aye to rest, The Nation's source close to the general said.

"He cannot manage these two guys. Actually, he has no control over this situation," the source said adding that Than Shwe did not trust either Maung Aye or Shwe Mann to adhere to his wishes after he steps down.

While Than Shwe has worked hard to secure a safe passage from power for himself and his family in a country where military coups are almost common, the general is reported to be unsure his plans will work. "Maung Aye is supposed to step down but there is no way [Than Shwe] can be sure that this will happen," the source close to the general said.

Political pundits in Burma agree that Than Shwe's recent hospitalisation has put him at greater risk of a power challenge from Maung Aye and that his decision to spend little time at work had left him out of the military loop and highly vulnerable.

Than Shwe has reportedly put plans to hand over command of the military on hold until the fallout from his time in hospital is contained. "He is not going to give up power now," the source said, adding that there was no sign Than Shwe's family planned to give up any part of their luxurious lifestyles.

Than Shwe's equally despotic wife, Daw Kyaing Kyaing, is said to oppose the idea of her husband bowing out gracefully. Daw Kyaing Kyaing, who orders subordinates to address her as the "queen of Burma", is known to be more intent on Than Shwe staying "president for life" than the senior general himself. "She won't like it at all [if Than Shwe relinquishes his position]. She is very uneducated and only sees the need to stay in power," the source close to the general said.

For now, Than Shwe's carefully managed media appearances are likely to continue as the infamous dictator struggles to maintain his health and grip on power. Burma watchers can expect to see regular footage on state TV of the general inspecting dams, holding high-level meetings and generally maintaining the air of menace that has kept him in power for so long.

But his position hinges on his physical strength, which finally appears to be failing him. "If Than Shwe were to become seriously sick very quickly, Maung Aye will almost certainly try to take over," Win Min said.

Jessicah Curtis is a freelance journalist based in Chiang Mai.

Jessicah Curtis

Special to The Nation

CHIANG MAI