OPINION / NATIONAL DIVISIVENESS

No end to the political polarisation

Thai politics is still a tug of war between supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra and the government installed by the coup-makers, and the public is being pulled in both directions

By PRADIT RUANGDIT

It has been more than four months since the Council for National Security seized power from the government of Thaksin Shinawatra, accusing the latter of causing an ''unprecedented level of divisiveness in society''. Have the CNS and interim government of General Surayud Chulanont been successful in mending the rift? No, say academics and social activists.

Pichai Ratanadilok Na Phuket, a social development lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), insists Thai politics has remained relatively the same: before and after the Sept 19 coup.

In summary, it is a game of power between Mr Thaksin's followers _ who have managed to maintain their influence in society despite their fall from official positions _ and the anti-Thaksin group led by the CNS.

''Thaksin may have been defeated in the first round of this power game and lost his seat, but he still retains a lot of influence. If he wants to launch a political offensive, it would not take him long,'' Mr Pichai said.

This ''influence'' derives from his having massive amounts of money (his assets have not been seized by the coup-makers); a semblance of behind-the-scenes control over the bureaucracy, and the unwavering support of the rural masses who benefited from his populist policies.

In Mr Pichai's opinion, the ''new power'' led by the CNS made a mistake in not moving fast to freeze the assets of the former PM and shift bureaucrats with links to the former regime out of their positions.

He sees Mr Thaksin's strategy as trying to discredit the new government _ to point out their inefficiency and incapability in economic matters _ to distract the public from corruption allegations against him, and to keep afloat hopes among his rural supporters of the possibility of his comeback.

''What we have now is thus a tug-of-war between the old and new powers. This results in instability, an issue to which the government and CNS must give their full attention to.

''For this reason, they cannot be expected to perform well in their jobs or to fulfil society's expectations,'' Mr Pichai said.

Anek Laothamatas, a politician and political scientist, says the CNS was too reluctant in its seizure of power to eliminate polarisation once and for all.

The government has worsened the overall sense of reluctance because its ministers do not share common goals, nor do they understand the strategies that are being used to achieve them.

''Some of them had connections with the Thaksin government. Some even benefited from this. How can they dig up corruption charges then, when they themselves could be dragged down?'' Mr Anek said.

The government's dilemma is reflected in its lacklustre performance and the overall signals of indecision it is sending to the outside world.

Nakarin Mektrairat, dean of Thammasat University's faculty of political sceince, says Thai people may have to change their attitude a bit and accept that we have a rift in society and it is going to stay with us for a while.

''It will take two to three years before people can adapt to the reality about the political wrangling and social divisiveness, or we achieve a new political balance through a new leader who can fill the vacuum left by Thaksin,'' Mr Nakarin said.

He recommends that the CNS and government take better care of people in the rural sector.

''So far, the CNS and government have been rather aloof towards the rural masses, considering them Thaksin's allies, perhaps. They should change that view and try to reach out to them and help solve their problems more,'' he said.

A leading member of the CNS admits that the coup-makers know about the problems.

''The honeymoon is over,'' he says. ''We won the public's admiration right after the coup. That admiration is slipping out of our hands, too.''

The continuing political polarisation and social rift causes uncertainty for the people. ''Some people feel that Thaksin might return after the new election,'' the CNS source said, adding that the military certainly sees through Mr Thaksin's moves to discredit them, but they do not want to meddle with the country's administration because they know it would be difficult for the public to accept this.

''What we can do is to work more closely with the government, especially in analysing the political situation,'' he said.

Social activist Chaiwat Thiraphan of Civic Net questions whether the new, CNS-led power is too focused on preventing the return of Mr Thaksin and an uprising by grassroots people, at the cost of preparing the country to cope with any form of dictatorship _ one form of which was perhaps represented by the former government _ in the long run.

In future, society will only become more complex and unstable, Mr Chaiwat says.

Instead of trying to suppress the old powers from resurrecting, has the CNS thought about working on a structure to cope with destabilising issues such as the southern unrest, bird flu, floods or economic problems?

The academics and social activist agree that a new election would be the nicest way out for the CNS and government.

''The election can return the situation to normalcy, to the Thai-style democracy we have had,'' Mr Anek says.

''It will also be a way to throw all the problems from the CNS and government back to the public to decide.''

He suggests that the constitution-drafters put speed above all else in their task. They should not aim solely at writing a better charter than the 1997 People's Constitution, he says.

It would be best to draft a constitution that would be adequate for the election and have it amended later, according to Mr Anek the politician.

Bangkok Post
Friday February 02, 2007