FOCUS / AGEING

United Nations report predicts older population to triple by 2050

By MICHELLE NICHOL

United Nations The number of people 60 years of age and older may nearly
triple to two billion by 2050, accounting for nearly a quarter of the expected
9.2 billion global population, a UN report has warned. The 2006 revision of ''World Population Prospects'' by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division predicts the global population will swell by 2.5 billion
from the current 6.7 billion during the next 43 years.

''While the population at the global level is on track to surpass nine billion
by 2050 and hence continues to increase, that of the more developed regions is
hardly changing and will age very markedly,'' the report predicted.

Most of the population growth and youth in the world is expected to come from
poorer nations, the report said.

''Virtually all population growth is occurring in the less developed regions and
especially in the group of 50 least developed countries, many of which still
have relatively youthful populations which are expected to age only moderately
over the foreseeable future,'' it said. ''Among the rest of the developing
countries, rapid population ageing is forecast.''

A combination of people living longer and having fewer children would nearly
double the number of people over 60 years of age from the current 245 million to
406 million in 2050.

The report said the prevailing trend of couples not having enough babies to
replace people dying would continue in the developed countries, while fertility
in the least developed nations would decline but still remain higher than the
rest of the world.

''Because of its low and declining population growth, the population of the
developed countries as a whole is expected to remain virtually unchanged between
2007 and 2050, at about 1.2 billion,'' the report found.

''In contrast, the population of the 50 least developed countries will likely
more than double, passing from 800 million in 2007 to 1.7 billion in 2050,'' it
said.

''Growth in the rest of the developing world is also projected to be robust
though less rapid, with its population rising from 4.6 billion to 6.2 billion.''

Despite immigration barriers, international migration from poor to rich nations
is expected to make up for the shortage in the labour force in the developing
world, the report said. Still, the populations in 46 countries, including
Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, most of the former Soviet Union states and
several small island states are expected to be lower in 2050 than what they are
now.

However, the populations of Afghanistan, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of
Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, East Timor and Uganda are forecast to
triple in the next four decades, the report showed.

The report found that India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Ethiopia, the United States, Bangladesh and China are forecast to account for
half the world's projected 2.5 billion population increase by 2050.REUTERS

Bangkok Post

Saturday March 17, 2007