COMMENTARY

Night of the generals?

ATIYA ACHAKULWISUT

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont feels the heat, screamed a headline the other day.

About time, I say. For many people in the country, the past several months have been nothing but a long, hot, super-parched summer.

Scroll down, and the news report can turn the heat up - if that's still possible, of course. In summary, a source revealed that our usually cool-as-a-cucumber PM has started to realise what a hot potato he has been handed by the Council for National Security (CNS), and to feel disheartened by mounting pressure from activists, farmers, old power cliques and basically everyone with problems in this country - all centred on him.

Worse, it looks like Gen Surayud and the CNS are starting to have different ideas on how to run the show. The "hermit" - a nickname given to the PM for his slow, I-don't-feel-the-heat demeanour - seems to want to exit the scene as soon as he can and let the people decide their fate through a general election.

The "soldiers", however, don't seem convinced that enough has been done to prevent the baddies from returning to power and milking our fragile country and democracy dry again. What is the point of staging a coup if the whole exercise ends up only as an intermission before the same, old show continues? Besides, who will cover their backs if the baddies indeed find ways to return and strike back?

The situation looks set for a possible clash between the two generals - nothing surprising, as far as Thai politics is concerned. Remember the uprising in May 1992? The collision course between the former coup-leader-cum-PM Gen Suchinda Kraprayoon and his chief opponent Maj-Gen Chamlong Srimuang was one pivotal element of the movement in the name of democracy.

This time, however, the drama will be high. Gen Surayud was once Gen Sonthi's boss. They were both trained at the Special Force and have fought together in battles. It will be like hot-headed Anakin Skywalker taking on his cooler-tempered mentor Obi-wan Kenobi.

But then, what can Gen Sonthi do? He is reportedly not happy with Gen Surayud's slow-but-not-so-sure performance. And he certainly has a legion of hot-blooded soldiers beneath him who will push the boss for more action and excitement. He tried proposing an imposition of the emergency decree in Bangkok earlier but the government resisted. And guess what? Gen Surayud did have many good reasons for declining Gen Sonthi's invitation to a state-of-emergency party. This harsh act would have seemed overboard, considering that there are only a few groups that have come out to express their dissenting voices. And what would the CNS do with the power of the decree? Arrest all anti-coup protesters? What good would that do for our democracy, which they promised to uphold? What the source was quoted as saying summarised the stuck position vis-a-vis the CNS and Gen Surayud: "The problem is that we do not know what to do with the present prime minister." It can't be more hapless than that. The CNS can't replace the PM. Gen Sonthi does not want to take on the premiership himself. The only option is for the CNS to push and nudge the hermit himself to start to perform some miracle act. And judging from the hermit's polite-but-firm refusal to join the emergency party, do we think he is one who will take the push and nudge gladly?

The board is set, the pieces are moving - that is what Gandalf the wise wizard of The Lord of the Rings would have noted of the situation. Whether the generals are inching towards a three-star war truly depends on how strong their fellowship and trust placed upon each other will be. Don't forget that while the clash-of-two-generals scenario won't do any good to the country which has yet to recover from the blow of the Sept 19 coup, certain individuals or interest groups may stand to gain from the chaos - lots of activities are going on and they all involve money. And I am not talking only about deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is orbiting the world and beaming miss-you signals to Thailand from time to time. Will the political tension come to a boil? Will there be brinkmanship? Or will there be a repeat coup? With so many hot questions hanging in the scalding heat of the super-hot month, I begin to see why so many people are flocking to buy the Jatukam talisman for protection, and pray.

Atiya Achakulwisut is Editorial Pages Editor, Bangkok Post.

Bangkok Post

Friday April 06, 2007