EDITORIAL

Energy plan has drawbacks

The 15-year Power Development Plan (PDP) approved by the National Energy Policy Council on Monday will leave the country too dependent on natural gas for electricity, leading to possible supply shocks and price spikes in the coming years. Though nine plans were presented, the council chose the path of least resistance in approving one in which natural gas will fuel more than 70 percent of new capacity from 2012 to 2021. Coal will generate a mere nine percent, with nuclear comprising 16 percent although it will take at least 15 years to build a nuclear plant.

The heavy reliance on natural gas is dangerous for a number of reasons, but mostly due to security of supply. Already about 70 percent of Thailand's power comes from natural gas, and about a third of that natural gas is imported from neighbouring Burma.

Since gas production in Thai waters of the Gulf of Thailand is expected to peak within the next decade, Thailand will be forced to import more and more gas as the years go by. This gas will apparently be imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Middle Eastern countries like Iran or be piped in from Burma or Cambodia, two countries with historical animosity towards Thailand and authoritarian governments. It was only four years ago that diplomatic ties with Phnom Penh turned sour after protesters torched the Thai embassy and business premises.

The government has said it hopes to start importing LNG by 2011, but that could be complicated. Industry sources say supply contracts for 2011 and 2012 are extremely tight. If even more gas is required as more gas-fired power plants are constructed, where is that supply coming from, and at what price?

Natural gas prices are typically as volatile as oil, and prices can quickly spike due to political uncertainty, demand changes and even inclement weather. For these reasons, it's best that Thailand seeks to diversify away from natural gas. All options should be looked at, including renewable energy sources like biomass.

Decisions so important to the country's future should not be made through short-term, politically expedient thinking. Rather, more creative solutions must be found than simply passing the buck to future governments.

Even environmental groups like Greenpeace agree that Thailand needs to diversify away from natural gas. One way to do this could be to decentralise the electricity grid to allow for small power plants fueled by biomass or hydroelectricity all throughout the country. Analysts say these small plants may make electricity more expensive, but the price may be worth it to protect the nation's energy security.

Other policymakers, and even some political parties, have urged coal to be given a second chance. While it has its benefits, coal has been vilified here due to the horrendous experience with the dirty lignite-fueled plant in Mae Mo, Lampang. Authorities must take extra precaution to make sure that the pollution tragedy is not repeated if they are to make more use of it.

While the government should also be applauded for putting nuclear power on the agenda, the capacity isn't nearly enough to constitute a diversification of fuel sources. Moreover, since any nuclear facility here is still 15 years away, it's hard to tell whether it will become a reality.

While nuclear seems to enjoy a surge of popularity around the world, the question remains whether Thailand is ready for it. Can we foot the bill for its construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning, let alone for uranium whose price is expected to rise? A disaster like that at Russia's Chernobyl _ though quite unlikely given today's technology _ could have far-reaching consequences.

PDPs are revised all the time, so there is nothing stopping the government from tearing up the one approved and doing more to diversify fuel sources to better achieve electricity security and supply in the coming decades.

As things may stand, Thailand's future power supply could easily be thwarted by terrorist attacks on pipelines, war in the Middle East, increased LNG demand, regional strong-armed governments or even a hurricane. It would be wiser to take a more balanced approach to such a crucial issue.

Bangkok Post

Last Updated : Wednesday April 11, 2007