Global warming could hit Asia hard

Washington/Brussels (dpa)

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says both floods and water shortages threaten Asia because of climate change, but there is no specific mention of Thailand among the most affected countries.

Asia faces drastic flooding, water shortages, hunger risks and disease problems over the current century at the present rate of global warming, according to the report released Friday in Brussels.

Australia and New Zealand however face fewer challenges to their ecosystems and have a higher capacity to adapt to the changes using their greater scientific and technical abilities compared to the rest of the region.

The UN IPCC - the work of more than 2,000 scientists over six years - earlier this year projected the Earth's average temperature would rise by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius given current levels of greenhouse-gas emissions.

Friday's report projected the consequences of that change, including the global loss of 20 to 30 per cent of known species; water shortages for at least one-sixth of the world's people by century's end; and an increase of many millions of people each year affected by flooding from now through to the 2080s.

Global economic losses could range from 1 to 5 per cent of the world's gross domestic product if temperatures climb 4 degrees Celsius during this century, the report projected.

By the 2050s, more than 1 billion people living in the large river basins of Central, South, East and Southeast Asia are projected to be affected by dwindling availability of fresh water - not only because of climate change but also due to "population growth and increasing demands from higher standards of living," the report said.

The Himalayas for example are expected to experience increased flooding and rock avalanches from glacier melt over the next two or three decades, followed by lower fresh water supplies as the glaciers recede, the report said.

Rising sea levels are expected to flood coastal areas and heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, and climate change is expected to interfere with sustainable development of the rapidly urbanising region.

East and Southeast Asia could enjoy up to 20 per cent greater crop yields, while neighbours in Central and South Asia would experience the opposite - up to 30-per-cent crop declines. The end balance would be negative, the IPCC said, and would increase the likelihood of hunger.

Disease and mortality are projected to increase from diarrhoeal illness "associated with floods and droughts" in East, South and Southeast Asia, while cholera could be worsened from rising coastal water temperatures in South Asia.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics are facing "significant loss of biodiversity" by 2020, the report said. The same is true for its Kakadu wetlands, an important refuge for many Australian waterbirds and the wintering ground for about 30 species of migratory birds like the little curlew that breed during the northern summer in Siberia, China and Japan.

Agricultural and forestry production was projected to drop by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand, the report said. New Zealand's higher altitude regions however could benefit initially from a longer growing season and less frost.

The IPCC report is the product of not only scientific input but also approval by 130 governments.

Bangkok Post

Last Updated : Saturday April 07, 2007