OPINION / POLITICS

A long road to general election day

The election path rests on a tight schedule and tricky manoeuvring in need of cooperation from all sides

By THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's recent announcement of an election date on either December 16 or 23 has brought his government some much needed breathing space.

Under pressure from the Council for National Security to declare an emergency decree to thwart anti-coup, anti-military and anti-government street protests in Bangkok, Gen Surayud produced a master stroke thus far in his interim administration.

By putting forward an election date and thereby putting off, without ruling out, the CNS-preferred emergency decree for the governance of Bangkok _ a de facto return to martial law for the capital _ the prime minister has simultaneously kept his military masters and critics and detractors at bay. Gen Surayud now has a known destination which will release him from high office by restoring democratic rule.

While the prime minister has paved the way for himself to descend from the tiger's back, the circumstances are much less clear for the CNS. The fluidity and dynamics of the post-coup political scene will surely bring up a host of potential pitfalls. The path to the election rests on a tight schedule and tricky manoeuvring in need of cooperation from a wide range of political protagonists. Much can still go wrong along the way.

Unlike Gen Surayud, CNS chairman Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin has not yet found a way to exit the stage gracefully. His rationales for carrying out the Sept 19 coup have made little headway, and certain junta members have come under increasing scrutiny for graft and nepotism, the same accusation that underpinned the putsch against exiled prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. For Gen Sonthi and the CNS, the election is insufficient as long as it does not provide guarantees against subsequent legal and constitutional prosecution by the forces that were ousted in the coup. For the coup-makers, the post-coup outcome somehow must ensure the safety and security of themselves, their associates and their assets. Part of this outcome will hinge on preventing the return to power of loyalists and remnants of the old regime.

Ironically, personal safety and the security of assets and associates were the central dilemma that confronted Mr Thaksin when he was ousted. This time the focus will be on the coup-makers.

Overcoming this dilemma means the CNS will be forced to work with the politicians who are likely to be elected. A pact or understanding of sorts will have to be reached between the generals and the politicians. The clue to this arrangement may be revealed with the pending Constitution Court decision to dissolve the Thai Rak Thai party, the Democrat Party and three minor parties under allegations of electoral fraud stemming from the nullified election in April last year. The dissolution of the TRT that leaves the Democrat Party intact is likely to lead to accusations that a fix has been arranged to facilitate the coup-makers' post-election exit. The constitution drafting and its passage in an unprecedented national referendum represents another hurdle that must be crossed to realise Gen Surayud's election promise.

Amid controversies on a number of critical issues ranging from codifying Buddhism as a national religion and the likelihood of a wholly or partially appointed senate to the potential role of a non-elected prime minister, the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC) is due to produce the first draft of the charter by April 19. It will be followed by one month of deliberations by the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA), another month of revisions by the CDC, and one more month of a joint deliberation between the CDC and CDA. Public input will be sought during this limited timeframe.

A referendum would then follow in late August. Enabling laws to put the constitution in effect would then reactivate and allow political parties to campaign ahead of Gen Surayud's late-December election pledge. However, if the draft charter fails the referendum, the entire process will have come to naught. The CNS would then be able to select and promulgate a past constitution.

This complex and contentious process took five years to generate the now-abolished ''People's Charter'' of 1997. This time, it is expected to take five months. The haste in drafting the new charter means that its passage in a referendum will be arduous and cannot be taken for granted.

Apart from the CNS' safe political departure and the constitution's draft and referendum, Gen Surayud's election timetable hinges on the role of key political players. Chief among them is the ongoing public demonstrations led by the People's Television (PTV), a conspicuously pro-Thaksin, anti-CNS and anti-government protest network, increasingly joined by previous anti-Thaksin supporters who are fed up with the post-coup mismanagement of Thailand by both Gen Sonthi and Gen Surayud.

The prime minister's election date has not dampened this growing protest movement. It bears an uncanny resemblance to the pre-coup anti-Thaksin move last year that was led by the People's Alliance for Democracy.

As long as the PTV-led street protests continue to agitate, provoke and gather strength, the road to the election will be long and hard. If it continues to build, the PTV-led coalition also may force the CNS to overreact. Hence the persistent rumours of an incumbent coup, another putsch that would be geared in the same direction, led by the same clique of generals, but with tougher methods.

To be sure, Gen Surayud has clarified Thailand's murky political environment with his chosen election date. A greater challenge for him will be to soldier on long enough with an effective stewardship to reach the electoral arena where most Thais will want to be by the end of the year as they were promised soon after the coup transpired.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

Bangkok Post

Last Updated : Tuesday April 10, 2007