10-12.5% rise likely in 2008

Business News - Saturday December 15, 2007

EXPORTS

10-12.5% rise likely in 2008

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

The value of Thailand's exports is expected to expand 10-12.5% next year despite continued oil price rises and an anticipated US slowdown.

Export revenues in dollar terms next year would be between $165.6 billion and $169.4 billion, based on an average exchange rate of 33.50 baht per dollar and average crude prices of $85 per barrel, the Commerce Ministry said yesterday.

Commerce Minister Krirk-Krai Jirapaet said there were still some favourable factors that would help the country's exports next year, including strong world trade, forecast at 6.6% by the International Monetary Fund.

As well, he said, agro-industrial and farm trade was healthy, while bilateral trade pacts with Japan, India, Australia and China would benefit Thailand.

The minister said that exports this year were strong and would reach $150.5 billion, or 16.1% higher than last year, and well above the previous projection of 12.5% growth.

He predicted that farm and agro-industrial products would expand next year by at least 4.4%. The segments together account nearly 14% of Thailand's total exports. Exports of industrial goods, which account for 67% of the total, would rise by about 10.3% next year.

Import revenues in 2007 are estimated at $130 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $11 billion, up sharply from $948 million last year, and reflecting in part the baht's appreciation. However, next year's surplus might not be as high, as the new government would probably increase imports, especially of capital goods for state projects to spur the economy.

Mr Krirk-krai said the ministry would continue to emphasise new markets including Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. They now account for a combined 49% of total export value, with the balance coming from conventional markets including the United States, Japan and Europe.

Bangkok Post