People Power Party tipped to win poll but not to rule

People Power Party tipped to win poll but not to rule

Like it or not, all opinion polls have People Power Party (PPP) as the frontrunner in this month's election.

Published on December 7, 2007

But, ironically perhaps, not many believe the PPP will actually get the chance to rule the country.

Many polls conducted recently suggest the PPP could win up to 200-240 seats, while their rival, the Democrat Party, would claim around 120-140.

Despite being the frontrunner, the real concern for the PPP is whether the junta will allow them back into power because the bulk of their members are from the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party, which was toppled in the coup last year.

Political observers believe that the junta will try desperately to block this reincarnation of the defunct TRT from ruling the country again - otherwise the coup could end up as worthless.

PPP secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee is holding his cards close to his chest, saying that it's not certain yet whether his party would be able to form the next government. He said it all depends on whether voters cast enough ballots to give them the chance to be the core party of the next administration.

"The more seats the party gets, the more chance the party has to form the government. Any party that wins up to 200 seats has a high chance," he said in an interview with The Nation.

Surapong said the party still didn't really know what the outcome would be on the election day. Campaigning has become quite dynamic, he said. And many things could change rapidly - especially in Bangkok, as voters were hard to predict.

The PPP secretary-general appeared in a good mood when asked about his party's survey of voters, but he would not reveal the results.

"If I tell you, people may think we want to manipulate the votes. All I can say is that in this election you won't see a very close race. The gap will be more than 10 seats for sure," he said.

He would not say the PPP would beat the Democrats but his body language suggested exactly that.

Six weeks ago, Surapong boasted his party would capture at least 250 House seats, according to a survey the PPP conducted.

Although the Democrat Party still trails its arch-rival, its secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban said recently the race was neck-and-neck. "The gap will be five to 10 seats. I think we and the (PPP) will win 165-170 seats," he said.

A high ranking source in the Democrats said if the party could not win at least two-thirds - or 24 of the total 36 seats in Bangkok - it would be an uphill task for them to form the next government.

"The outcome can go either way. If we can't win two-thirds of Bangkok, it will be pretty tough for us," the source said.

A recent Ramkhamhaeng University poll showed the Democrats would win 21 seats and the PPP 15 seats in Bangkok, but candidates from the two parties were very close in eight constituencies.

Realising they are trailing behind the PPP, the Democrats have tried to lock in their old opposition allies - the Chart Thai Party - and find a new ally in the Puea Pandin, to form the next government.

But neither of these medium-sized parties has committed itself to join a coalition with either the PPP or the Democrat camp. If the result of the election turns out as the polls predict, a big question may end up being whether the PPP can be the core party of a coalition.

Some have noted that PPP party leader Samak Sundaravej's hopes of becoming the next prime minister could be disrupted if the Assets Examination Committee finds him guilty of alleged corruption in the fire-truck deal. The case would be passed through the state attorney to the Supreme Court's section for political office-holders.

If Samak is found guilty by the court, he would be disqualified from assuming the premiership, as the Constitution bars people who have received a prison sentence from taking up the post.

However, Surapong said the fire-truck case was a long way from reaching court.

"It's not easy to conclude the case. Samak also insists in his innocence," he said.

As the PPP's No 2, there are rumours Surapong may become PM if Samak is found guilty, but Surapong sought to quell such speculation.

"I don't know what this means. Do these people have good or bad intentions for me?" he said.

Samak doubted yesterday if his case had been considered by the AEC and asked why he had already been summoned before the election.

"Many parties have been involved in vote-buying as well. Why don't the concerned agencies investigate them? Why do they only target my party?" Samak said.

Junta head Air Chief Marshal Chalit Phukphasuk admitted recently it was the Council of National Security's (CNS) duty to overcome the social divisions and safeguard national security following the September 19 coup. He referred to CNS documents which the PPP claims outline a plot to undermine the party.

"He (Samak) has rallied on the podium and said he is a nominee of the former PM and vowed to take revenge and abolish all investigations if they are back into power. We cannot let the turmoil happen in the country again, so we asked approval from former junta chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin before three organic laws relating to the electoral process were enacted," Chalit said.

Last and most definitely not least, the result of the election may not determine the face of the next government, simply because the military is working to help shape the Kingdom's political future.

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation