Poll result hinges on swing vote

General News - Tuesday December 11, 2007

Poll result hinges on swing vote

Abac Poll shows 61% remain undecided

APIRADEE TREERUTKUARKUL

As-yet-undecided voters will be a vital factor in deciding the election winner as for most seats the battle has narrowed down to a contest between the Democrats and People Power party (PPP).

Although the PPP leads the Democrats in several surveys, Abac Poll Research Centre director Noppadon Kannika warned the party should not get carried away with its comfortable lead.

Many voters remain undecided which party they will support, he said.

A fresh poll released yesterday by Abac, which surveyed almost 7,600 respondents in 33 provinces, showed that 61% of voters have still not made up their minds, with the election only 12 days away.

Advance voting is this weekend, with election day on Dec 23.

The Assumption University poll showed the same trend in its survey last week of selected leaders of local administrative organisations from provincial level down to tambons.

About 47% of local leaders said they had not decided which party to support on the party-list system and almost 40% were undecided about their choice of constituency candidates.

Mr Noppadon said political parties seem to be ignoring the importance of these groups. But they were eligible voters and their eventual decision could make the actual election results quite different from recent findings of opinion surveys.

He felt that the parties' lack of clear policies could be a reason for the voters' wait-and-see attitude.

''If the undecided voters get bored with politics and decide not to vote, some parties could easily end up winners by relying on organised votes,'' he said.

Mr Noppadon said later he was referring to the PPP led by Samak Sundaravej.

Many surveys over the past weeks have concluded the Democrats will get about 130 seats in the 480-member lower house. The PPP, comprising mostly former members of the dissolved Thai Rak Thak party founded by ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, would win at least 180 seats.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is banking on a big turnout of voters and a sudden surge of support on polling day helping him win.

On Sunday he voiced concern about the possibility of his supporters not showing up on election day and urged them to turn up and put the Democrats in charge of the country again.

''My concern is many voters support the Democrats but they are not committed to turning out to vote. I would encourage my supporters, especially the young ones, to vote. If all eligible voters turn out, the Democrats are confident of leading the formation of the next government,'' he told supporters at Lumpini park.

Mr Abhisit has made clear the Democrats will let People Power have the first go at setting up a government if the party wins most seats.

Yesterday's Abac poll showed that 60% of voters who favour Mr Thaksin would vote for PPP. About the same percentage of those opposing the deposed prime minister would back the Democrats.

Mr Noppadon said most voters were likely to base their vote on the party leaders and opinions of family members.

The PPP tended to attract votes from people influenced by their families and community leaders, while Democrat voters tended to get their information from the media and academics.

The study also showed the PPP's door-to-door campaigning worked well in the North and the Northeast, where over half of the respondents already know the numbers of the party's constituency candidates. Most of them did not know the numbers of candidates from the Democrats, Puea Pandin, Chart Thai and Matchimathipataya.

By : Bangkok Post