PPP 'set to rule Thailand'

General News - Saturday December 15, 2007

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PPP 'set to rule Thailand'

The PPP has adopted TRT's old populist policies, with some new ideas added on, while keeping Thaksin's name prominent to send a message to the TRT faithful that if they elect PPP candidates in large numbers, he can return home

KAMOL HENGKIETISAK

Observing the electioneering by the People Power Party (PPP), and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's distribution of VCDs and several interesting personal interviews, including a proposed "Government of National Unity," it seems that the PPP believes it may have already succeeded in its political objective of winning the general election, noted a Thai Rath writer.

One may wonder why the PPP would risk flaunting the EC's electioneering ban of former TRT executives by airing Thaksin's CD to the party's faithful? The writer conjectured that the PPP's use of the Thaksin CD is due to the fact that the party is quite sure that the Election Commission (EC) cannot trace the distribution to party executives, or else it is convinced that the EC won't dare seek to have the PPP dissolved. Time is short and the party would like to secure a resounding victory by garnering the largest number of MPs so that the party can have the most chance to form the government single-handedly or with help from a small or medium-size party.

To achieve such an objective, the PPP has adopted TRT's old populist policies, with some new ideas added on, while keeping Thaksin's name prominent to send a message to the TRT faithful that if they elect PPP candidates in large numbers, he can return home.

Due in part to the present economic slowdown, it is likely that the PPP will win handsomely, as the former TRT government was seen as reviving the Thai economy from the doldrums of the 1997 economic meltdown.

Thai Rath said Thaksin's latest proposal of forming a national unity government is a ploy to inform the electorate that the party agrees with national reconciliation and is open for negotiation with other small and medium-size parties, in case it cannot secure an outright majority MPs in the House of Representatives.

The chance of the PPP garnering a greater number of MPs than the Democrat Party is still intact, and when the election day is almost here, more money will be dumped to make sure that victory is not lost at the last minute.

Meanwhile the Council for National Security is seen to be powerless to counter the PPP's relentless discrediting campaign. The EC is busy with organising the general election and tackling the old issues of the CNS's secret document leak.

Now that the general election is near, the writer was certain that the EC would not dare to proceed with the dissolution of the PPP because the commission has never clearly specified what electioneering actions are forbidden by party executives.

If the PPP wins in a landslide manner, the Democrats will not have any legitimacy to lobby to form the government. The PPP can invite just one party to form a government and it is believed that a certain party has already been approached and has accepted.

However, if the PPP wins narrowly, the Democrats are expected to be capable of forming a coalition government with other medium and small parties, leaving the PPP as the sole opposition party, the strongest opposition party ever in the history of Thai politics, concluded Thai Rath.

It's ethanol time

His Majesty the King again mentioned the necessity of pursuing renewable bio-energy sources such as bio-diesel and ethanol on the night of December 4, when he addressed the nation on the eve of his 80th birthday anniversary, noted Saravut Sing-iam of Matichon.

All related government agencies expressed their willingness to fulfil His Majesty's advice in promoting alternative motoring fuels. However, Saravut would like to see the government agencies pay attention to this issue continuously, not just be enthusiastic for a very short time and then ignore it as time goes on.

It is well-known that the global energy demands have entered a significant phase, with continuously rising demand and falling production. It is not surprising that world's crude oil prices keep on rising, with no end in sight. Coupled with instability in the Middle East and the demands of new rising economic powers India and China, it is inevitable that the global crude prices will continue to rise in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, new oil finds are hard to come by, and harder to bring to production.

For all these reasons, Saravut said it is necessary that Thailand find alternative energy sources.

Thailand has a competitive advantage in producing bio-renewables, especially bio-diesel from coconut, oil palm, purging nut (physic nut), vegetable oil, and ethanol from cassava and sugarcane, which is blended with gasoline to become gasohol.

The writer talked of government flip-flops on ethanol promotion. Initially, the Energy Ministry invited the private sector to invest in ethanol production so that it could be blended with gasoline to boost octane in gasoline, replacing MTBE.

At present there are 8 producers with daily production at 1.15 million litres/day. Ten more will be added next year with combined production capacity of 2.66 million litres/day. Meanwhile, at the latest count there were 49 applicants to produce ethanol, with a combined production capacity of over 12.5 million litres/day.

But once the producers were on stream and the coup took place, the new government changed tact, and did not continue with the old policy of totally getting rid of Gasoline 95. This resulted in an ethanol surplus. Since ethanol is not easy to store and the storage capacity is limited, certain ethanol plants have had to either stop or curtail production. Meanwhile there is the problem of raw material supply. The Agriculture Ministry limits cassava and sugarcane production to only 12.6 million rai.

Not only ethanol producers have to abide by Agriculture Ministry's regulations, they have to get a licence from Industry Ministry for operating ethanol plants. Since the ethanol is the same as drinking alcohol, it is under the Excise Department's control as well, to make sure that there is no diversion to make liquor, which earns higher income.

As well, since ethanol is to be blended with gasoline to form gasohol, a motoring fuel, the Energy Ministry is the agency that decides the fate of ethanol producers by promoting gasohol while weaning the public from Gasoline 95 and eventually Gasoline 91 as well.

The blended gasohol is known as E10 (10% of ethanol, 90% of gasoline) and the latest push by the Energy Ministry and the Finance Ministry is to introduce E20 (20% ethanol, 80% gasoline) to the public next year to coincide with a 5% excise tax reduction for any petrol-driven vehicle which is E20 compatible. As of this writing, practically all new car models to be sold next year are all E20 compatible to reap the benefit of 5% excise tax reduction.

This is well and good, but as Saravut mentioned, in certain countries such as Brazil some cars are capable of using 100% ethanol while maintaining gasoline compatibility as well. Such cars are known as flexible-fuel vehicles (FFV). Volkswagen is now producing such a vehicle to be used mainly in Brazil. The writer would like to see the Thai government promote such a development.

Moreover, he said, if the government is really serious about promoting ethanol, it should direct all related agencies to act in a coordinated manner.

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Don't let separatists intimidate voters

With only about a week left before the Thai people have a chance to determine the country's political fate, some are expressing worry that there might be agitators coming to create disturbances, necessitating postponing the general election to next year. A Thai Rath writer discounted this possibility, but felt that the general election would encounter difficulties in the 3 southernmost provinces.

For one thing, right now there are heavy rains flooding 8 districts in the three deep South provinces. If rains continue unabated, it will hamper people coming out to cast their votes and make it hard to tally votes.

The separatists threat is more worrying. The arrest of RKK core leaders in Rue Soh, Narathiwat, earlier this week revealed that the separatists planned to stage coordinated terrorist attacks on December 23, general election day.

The Thai Rath writer believed security personnel would be able to handle the situation, but he was not sure that 70% of eligible voters would turn out, as hoped by the government.

At any rate, the election in the three provinces should yield interesting information.

First, during the national referendum to ratify the constitution, the separatists were successful in coercing some voters to deliberately damage their ballots, resulting in over 30,000 void ballots. If the number of void ballots rises in the upcoming general election, it means that the separatists have been successful in extending their influences.

Second, if there are new faces elected, they might be receiving support from the separatists.

On the second point, the Thai Rath writer was not really worried.

He said it would be better to engage them to air their grievances through the House of Representatives than have them stage daily violence.

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