Projected high win for PPP seems right

ELECTION 2007

ABAC AND SUAN DUSIT BATTLE FOR ACCURACY

Projected high win for PPP seems right

POST REPORTERS

The election was not only about political parties competing for parliamentary seats, it was also about the reputation of two of the country's most respected poll agencies and the accuracy of their exit polls.

Both agencies conducted exit polls among voters leaving polling stations.

As unofficial results came through last night, Suan Dusit's prediction of a massive win for the Thaksin-allied People Power party (PPP) seemed to be closer to the mark than the Abac survey. Suan Dusit Poll of Suan Dusit Rajabhat University gave the PPP 256 seats, followed by the Democrat party with 162 seats, numbers that, compared to last night's unofficial election results were far more accurate than the Abac Poll of Assumption University.

Abac predicted PPP had won only 202 seats and the Democrats 146.

The relatively greater accuracy of its forecast is a boon for Suan Dusit Poll, which was criticised for incorrectly picking the result of the referendum on the military-backed constitution on Aug 19.

Its exit poll at the time showed the draft constitution would be accepted by a healthy majority of 68%.

But the actual results were different. The "yes" votes came to only 54%, against 46% who rejected it, mainly voters in northern and northeastern provinces.

PPP secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee said Suan Dusit's forecast was close to the results of his party's own survey, which suggested the PPP would get 240-plus seats _ enough to form a single-party government.

The exit poll predictions visibly annoyed Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and the party's secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, as they watched their party fall short of the 180 seats they expected.

"I have no idea how they conducted the exit polls. Let's wait and see the official results," said Mr Abhisit.

Mr Suthep said he did not believe the exit polls, saying the result predicted for PPP was too high.

Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana leader Gen Chettha Thanajaro also disputed the exit poll results, which gave his party 15 seats, short of its projection of 25.

Matchimathipataya leader Prachai Leophairatana shrugged off the exit polls.

"I don't believe them because I don't know how they arrived at the results," he said. The exit polls were widely quoted by media organisations as they scrambled for comments while waiting for the official count to begin.