The candidates for finance portfolio

ANCHORMAN

The candidates for finance portfolio

M.L. NATTAKORN DEVAKULA

Who will take finance?

Not that it matters all that much, but this is still the question most people within the investment community would like answered. Each of us has a candidate in mind. What I'd like to do today is offer a range of selections of the "impossible", the "may be" and the "likely to be" for the post of Minister of Finance.

Remember that this is not a list of the "should be", because that is really up to your own opinion. This is a list of who could be, based on my strangely keen ability to predict the mind of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Yes, we're going to pick Mr Thaksin's brains today. It seems we've not done that for a while. The fun returns!

For starters: The "impossible".

Prachai Leophairatana once proposed himself as a candidate. It will be a cold day in hell before he is ever chosen. Plus, he has no negotiation leverage nor experience that would qualify for the post.

Suchart Jaovisidha is an experienced veteran of the Finance Ministry but effectively his name is synonymous with Chart Thai for this election. A finance minister has to be an insider from within the People Power party or at least someone that the new prime minister trusts very much.

Sommai Phasri. Sadly this cannot happen due to the court ruling and other reasons. His wild ways would certainly have made the former deputy finance minister an exciting choice.

Chalongphob Sussangkarn. Reappointment? Even Mr Prachai's chances are higher.

Let's go to the "may be."

Boonklee Plangsiri and Supavud Saicheau. The former used be to executive chairman of Shin Corp, Mr Thaksin's former company. The latter is the head of research at Phatra Securities and a regular television and radio commentator whose name has been floated around whenever it came to a search for finance minister since back in 2001. Why I've put both on the same list is because both of these individuals are extremely well liked by Mr Thaksin and Khunying Potjaman Shinawatra. Yet, as successful as they have been in their respective fields, it is a shared passion that they absolutely despise politics. Both would more than likely be granted the post if they ever wanted it. The proposal wouldn't necessarily have to be from a People Power-led coalition either. Their greatest days are still ahead of them.

Then we come to two older gentlemen. Both are respected economists. One lives in the practical world and is, by a quick count, holder for the record of having been economic adviser to more prime ministers than anyone. Any time this former finance minister speaks, the entire economy listens.

The other lives in the mathematically computer-generated calculator that is his think-tank and the university he runs for the Shinawatra family. This "other" is also someone who recommended, and still does recommend, a strengthening of the baht while others voice a different concern. Yes, you guessed right. Dr Virabongsa Ramangkura and Dr Olarn Chaipravat. They are both in the category of "may be", the former with the greater chance.

Let's now move to the category of "likely to be". Mingkwan Saengsuwan, you say? No. He's slated to be the deputy prime minister in charge of marketing the administration's policy. There is also a chance he may head either the Tourism and Sports portfolio or be running things over at Commerce. But he's not yet fit, nor will he be pitched, for Finance.

Kongkiat Opaswongkarn is former president of Asset Plus Securities and is the current executive chairman of Asia Plus Securities. After having been a deal-maker for many multi-billion-baht initial public offerings and various numbers of mega mergers (EGV/Major for one), this is a shrewd man whose qualifications and standing on investment policies will make the stock market rock like never before.

If he is picked, look for revolutionary changes that will open up Thailand into a real investment heaven and haven for the opening up of new businesses - local and foreign. He will be the most pro-investment finance minister of the modern era.

Even Mr Thaksin and Samak Sundaravej are not gutsy enough to pick this guy. His coming would also signal massive changes in the conservatism of Thai economic platforms as well as central banking regulations.

Another is a figure of respect and adoration within the investment community: former Stock Exchange of Thailand president Kittirat Na Ranong. The football coach currently teaches at Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration of Chulalongkorn University. He was briefly associated with the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana party in its nascent days. Mr Kittirat would sure be without enemies. The only question may be experience. If that ever becomes an issue, he could always seek the advice of former finance minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

The fact that these two are tight may, however, be the very reason why Mr Thaksin would shy away from picking Mr Kittirat.

Then we come to one of the most gentlemanly bankers of the modern era. This is a man who has been at nearly every post having to do with macroeconomic policy imaginable. That would include being former Thai Military Bank president, former Thai Airways International chairman, former NESDB chairman, former commerce minister, and - before the coup - finance minister.

He has the biggest chance simply because he gets along well with the military top brass, while earning the cherished trust of both Mr Thaksin and Khunying Potjaman. His return to Finance would also allow him to right the wrongs and correct the misperceptions of the final days before the power grab back last September. Thanong Bidaya, wrongly blamed for illiquidity problems in July 2006, is the safest choice for the finance job.

To be honest, I have no idea who incoming prime minister Samak Sundaravej will pick to fill the finance portfolio. That may not matter, for the decision might unofficially be made elsewhere (not that there is anything wrong with that, it is just the reality of the situation). I just hope that whoever is picked is able to get along with the irascible former Bangkok governor.

No matter who is picked, though, rest assured the stock market will be bouncing through the roof. Mr Thaksin is not likely to advise a selection that would not be welcomed by the international investment community. He is likely to prefer a person with experience in the intricate Thai economy while simultaneously being well-versed with a pro-investment - rather than purely nationalistic - set of policies.

Though there have been many complaints from the "business class" of Thailand over the name of the next prime minister, there certainly will be fewer complaints over the name of the next finance minister. The case is especially so when comparing any of the above-mentioned names with that of the nearly inactive incumbent one.

The writer is a news analyst.