True Corp could trim its investments
Mobile and cable holdings may be cut
KOMSAN TORTERMVASANA
True Corp could divest part of its shareholdings in cable operator TrueVisions, as well as mobile phone provider True Move, according to True chief financial officer Noppadol Dej-udom.
But he ruled out any immediate deal, saying that the telecommunications conglomerate had until mid-2009 before it faced the need to raise funds.
Bitco, the holding company parent of True Move, raised three billion baht in capital last year through a rights offering to the CP Group, a major shareholder of True Corp. True Corp has the right to repurchase the 23% Bitco shareholding until July 2009 at the offering price of 0.5 baht per share plus carrying costs of 12%.
Mr Noppadol said True has not yet decided how it would finance the share buyback.
A debt issue was one possibility, although market volatility and rising yields make this an unattractive offer at the moment.
True itself could also issue new shares, also an unattractive prospect considering the dilution effect on existing shareholders.
''Another possibility would be to sell off some portion of TrueVisions or True Move to a new strategic partner,'' Mr Noppadol said. ''There is considerable investor interest in both companies.''
True currently holds 99% in TrueVisions and controls 76% in True Move, the country's third-largest mobile phone operator.
Mr Noppadol said any transaction this year was highly unlikely considering current market and economic trends. In any case, True would continue to hold a majority shareholding in both TrueVisions and True Move to support the company's overall ''convergence'' strategy blending content across different telecommunications channels.
''Forget about any deal over the next four months. It's impossible. The political situation and overall telecommunications market is simply not supportive of an asset sale,'' he said.
Athueck Asvanund, vice-chairman of True Corp, said there were no plans to discuss a possible share sale at the company's board meeting this month.
''It's not an issue at the moment, and True has no need right now to raise cash,'' he said.
True reported first half profits of 65.89 million baht compared with losses of 282 million last year. First-half revenues rose 2.5% year-on-year to 31 billion baht.
Shares of True on the Stock Exchange of Thailand closed yesterday at 2.32 baht, down 10 satang, in trade worth 32.35 million baht.
Showing posts with label Investing News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investing News. Show all posts
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Investors urged to buy and hold
STOCKS
Investors urged to 'buy and hold'
NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE
Penazola: Asia faces multiple headwinds
Investors should take advantage of the sharp declines in the market this year and adopt a long-term, ''buy-and-hold'' strategy, according to Aberdeen Asset Management.
The fund manager yesterday launched its new ''Pearls of Wisdom'' education campaign with partners HSBC, Phatra Securities, Standard Chartered and Citi.
Robert Penazola, the Aberdeen chief executive, said the campaign reflected the company's philosophy to focus on fundamentally sound companies.
The campaign, which starts next month, will include seminars and roadshows citing examples of prominent investors who counsel patience over panic at times of market stress, he said.
Mr Penazola said Asian stock markets were facing ''multiple headwinds'', and that it was difficult to make progress this year.
Political uncertainties and economic volatility would remain key risk factors for the near future.
While it was difficult to predict how low the market could fall, for long-term investors, equity would continue to outperform other asset classes, Mr Penazola said.
Since the beginning of the year, the Stock Exchange of Thailand has fallen over 21%, and closed yesterday down 9.28 points at 668.92 in thin trade.
''Over a one-year period, as well as over longer periods of 3-5 years, the performance of Aberdeen's equity fund has been very good,'' Mr Penazola said.
He cited the Aberdeen Growth Fund's 27.5% return over three years compared with just 1.4% for the SET.
Over five years, the fund is up 97.1% compared with 41.3% for the SET. Even on a one-year basis, the Aberdeen Growth Fund has outperformed the market, with a -16.3% return compared with a -20.6% decline for the SET.
''At Aberdeen we keep things simple. We invest in great businesses at sensible prices and look for consistent returns over the long term,'' Mr Penazola said.
Investors urged to 'buy and hold'
NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE
Penazola: Asia faces multiple headwinds
Investors should take advantage of the sharp declines in the market this year and adopt a long-term, ''buy-and-hold'' strategy, according to Aberdeen Asset Management.
The fund manager yesterday launched its new ''Pearls of Wisdom'' education campaign with partners HSBC, Phatra Securities, Standard Chartered and Citi.
Robert Penazola, the Aberdeen chief executive, said the campaign reflected the company's philosophy to focus on fundamentally sound companies.
The campaign, which starts next month, will include seminars and roadshows citing examples of prominent investors who counsel patience over panic at times of market stress, he said.
Mr Penazola said Asian stock markets were facing ''multiple headwinds'', and that it was difficult to make progress this year.
Political uncertainties and economic volatility would remain key risk factors for the near future.
While it was difficult to predict how low the market could fall, for long-term investors, equity would continue to outperform other asset classes, Mr Penazola said.
Since the beginning of the year, the Stock Exchange of Thailand has fallen over 21%, and closed yesterday down 9.28 points at 668.92 in thin trade.
''Over a one-year period, as well as over longer periods of 3-5 years, the performance of Aberdeen's equity fund has been very good,'' Mr Penazola said.
He cited the Aberdeen Growth Fund's 27.5% return over three years compared with just 1.4% for the SET.
Over five years, the fund is up 97.1% compared with 41.3% for the SET. Even on a one-year basis, the Aberdeen Growth Fund has outperformed the market, with a -16.3% return compared with a -20.6% decline for the SET.
''At Aberdeen we keep things simple. We invest in great businesses at sensible prices and look for consistent returns over the long term,'' Mr Penazola said.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Matching fund will top B8bn
INVESTING
Matching fund will top B8bn
NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE
The Stock Exchange of Thailand will establish an 8.25-billion-baht matching fund to invest in blue-chip and small-cap stocks starting in October.
SET president Patareeya Benjapolchai said the programme would include two components, with the first comprising one or more funds totalling four to five billion baht and including Middle Eastern and other foreign institutional investors as partners.
The second component will be a matching fund set by the SET and local asset management companies.
Up to 10 sub-funds could be established, with five funds sized at around 400 million baht each and investing in the FTSE index. Another five funds of 250 million baht each would focus on small-cap stocks, with the SET providing 100 million in capital in each fund.
''Share prices for many stocks have fallen under their fundamental value. It's a good time for long-term investment right now,'' Mrs Patareeya said, adding that the fund's investment target was for more than one year.
Overall, the SET expects to invest around two billion baht in the programme, with the remaining funds raised from local and international investors.
The matching fund concept mirrors a similar structure used by the Thailand Opportunity Fund, an investment fund managed by the Government Pension Fund, local and foreign investors.
Mrs Patareeya denied that the fund was aimed at propping up the local market, which has fallen more than 21% in value for the year to date.
''Don't call this fund a price support fund. Consider just that it's a good opportunity to invest in some oversold stocks now, and we will be joining with a number of institutional investors in the programme,'' she said.
Matching fund will top B8bn
NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE
The Stock Exchange of Thailand will establish an 8.25-billion-baht matching fund to invest in blue-chip and small-cap stocks starting in October.
SET president Patareeya Benjapolchai said the programme would include two components, with the first comprising one or more funds totalling four to five billion baht and including Middle Eastern and other foreign institutional investors as partners.
The second component will be a matching fund set by the SET and local asset management companies.
Up to 10 sub-funds could be established, with five funds sized at around 400 million baht each and investing in the FTSE index. Another five funds of 250 million baht each would focus on small-cap stocks, with the SET providing 100 million in capital in each fund.
''Share prices for many stocks have fallen under their fundamental value. It's a good time for long-term investment right now,'' Mrs Patareeya said, adding that the fund's investment target was for more than one year.
Overall, the SET expects to invest around two billion baht in the programme, with the remaining funds raised from local and international investors.
The matching fund concept mirrors a similar structure used by the Thailand Opportunity Fund, an investment fund managed by the Government Pension Fund, local and foreign investors.
Mrs Patareeya denied that the fund was aimed at propping up the local market, which has fallen more than 21% in value for the year to date.
''Don't call this fund a price support fund. Consider just that it's a good opportunity to invest in some oversold stocks now, and we will be joining with a number of institutional investors in the programme,'' she said.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Psychology of successful investing
BOOK SHELF
Psychology of successful investing
SRIWIPA SIRIPUNYAWIT
So many books on how to invest in the stock market have been published. Many have focused on the technical, fundamental, or other strategies for sophisticated and amateur investors. However, not many have stressed on the psychological effect of one's investments.
Banjong Amorncheevin believes psychology is no less important than other factors influencing an investor's mind and the decision-making process.
All stock markets worldwide have been painted with emotions, mood and feelings, be it tears, laughs, gladness, disappointment and so on. All have been caused by these two words: Greed and fear.
Fear of losing money during the times of market downturns or chances to earn more when the market is skyrocketing. Greed of wanting to earn as much profits as others or even more than others.
Thus, to win the battle, the writer believes the essence is to truly understand ones' psychological stage and personality that actually influences one's decision-making process.
In the first few chapters, the writer discusses the different types of personality disorders such as paranoid, schizoid, schizotypal, histrionic, narcissistic, antisocial, borderline, avoidant, obsessive compulsive and depressive. They all impact and disrupt the decision-making process.
Other things like the person's ego, learning process and childhood experiences also affect the investor's choice.
The latter half of the book outlines ways to balance the aforementioned emotions and the disorders and get the best results out of it. One thing he cautions is stress. Basically stress does have big influence on investors' decisions. So it's necessary for investors to find ways to cope with it.
Patience is another key word here. The writer believes it's the core necessity for all investors. Good investments do take times. However, investors are often and easily lured into quick money or overnight richness. The media can also misguide investors, he says.
In the last few chapters, the writer outlines guidelines on how to change ones' behaviour patterns to fix the mistakes in investing.
The book is a good read for both beginners and even sophisticated investors.
However, it contains too many psychological jargon that may somehow, confuse readers.
Psychology of successful investing
SRIWIPA SIRIPUNYAWIT
So many books on how to invest in the stock market have been published. Many have focused on the technical, fundamental, or other strategies for sophisticated and amateur investors. However, not many have stressed on the psychological effect of one's investments.
Banjong Amorncheevin believes psychology is no less important than other factors influencing an investor's mind and the decision-making process.
All stock markets worldwide have been painted with emotions, mood and feelings, be it tears, laughs, gladness, disappointment and so on. All have been caused by these two words: Greed and fear.
Fear of losing money during the times of market downturns or chances to earn more when the market is skyrocketing. Greed of wanting to earn as much profits as others or even more than others.
Thus, to win the battle, the writer believes the essence is to truly understand ones' psychological stage and personality that actually influences one's decision-making process.
In the first few chapters, the writer discusses the different types of personality disorders such as paranoid, schizoid, schizotypal, histrionic, narcissistic, antisocial, borderline, avoidant, obsessive compulsive and depressive. They all impact and disrupt the decision-making process.
Other things like the person's ego, learning process and childhood experiences also affect the investor's choice.
The latter half of the book outlines ways to balance the aforementioned emotions and the disorders and get the best results out of it. One thing he cautions is stress. Basically stress does have big influence on investors' decisions. So it's necessary for investors to find ways to cope with it.
Patience is another key word here. The writer believes it's the core necessity for all investors. Good investments do take times. However, investors are often and easily lured into quick money or overnight richness. The media can also misguide investors, he says.
In the last few chapters, the writer outlines guidelines on how to change ones' behaviour patterns to fix the mistakes in investing.
The book is a good read for both beginners and even sophisticated investors.
However, it contains too many psychological jargon that may somehow, confuse readers.
A guide to condominium rentals
Investing in real estate
A guide to condominium rentals
KRISSANA PARNSOONTHORN
What are you going to do when the inflation reached 8.9 per cent and still keeps rising? This means that your real income diminishes if it doesn't increase at the same rate or even outstrip the inflation.
Meanwhile, during current economic turmoil, most people are now experiencing a major reduction in their real income and also purchasing power.
Since it's impossible to count on employers to compensate for the loss of our income, looking for ways to increase the income will be a smart choice.
Take Amara Saengdao, an accountant at a financial company. She is now enjoying her promising additional income apart from her monthly salary. A year ago, she started to rent out her 80m2 condominium in the Sukhumvit area to a client.
Pumipat Sinacharoen, an executive of a real estate company Bangkok Citismart, agrees with Amara that investing in a good location condominium usually generates healthy returns to investors, beating interest rates and inflation.
"Renting out a condo is a good answer for those who own condos but don't actually live in or those who intentionally buy a condo just to let it out. You can earn between 30,000 to 40,000 baht a month from your one-bedroom condo if it is located on main Sukhumvit Road," he explains.
Sukhumvit is top of the list for condominiums rentals in Bangkok and the reason is because foreigners or expatriates like to live close to the central business district where there are a wide range of facilities ensuring their convenience.
If a condo is near the BTS or MRT, it is priced even higher.
Pumipat, who is also senior vice-president of Asian Property Development, says if the condo is inside the soi, rents are usually lower than those on the main road.
"A supply of condos inside the sois remains high, while demand for these units are low. Thus, the rents are not that expensive. The other areas such as Narathiwat or Ratchadaphisek roads cannot compete with Sukhumvit," he explains.
The returns of this sort of investment is about eight to 10 per cent per year, particularly for the units on the main Sukhumvit Road. "The yields of eight to 10 per cent is considered very good when compared to the saving account, which is currently around 0.75 per cent and one-year fixed-account of 3.75 per cent," he adds.
Typically it is a worthwhile investment, he adds. The investors or owners normally take 10 years for their investments to break-even. Moreover, they are very likely to have upside gains when they sell their units in the future as the property prices always appreciate overtime.
Visit Kunathornkul, managing director of Realty World Alliance, says the CBD area is the first-tier market for expats while Thais prefer other areas and the rents are cheaper.
"The rental market for foreigners has fewer problems than the market for Thais. Foreign customers prefer trust and honesty and they will do everything based on the contract," he explains.
In fact, renting out a condo is easier than a house as you will need lesser time to take care and maintain the condo unit.
However, there is high demand for houses in some specific locations close to international schools. The rule of thumb to rent a house is not so different from a condo.
To prevent any future problem with tenants, Visit says, you should screen them through an interview about family background and work. You should also ask for advanced deposits and prepare a thorough contract that covers all damages and other necessary issues.
"From my experience, most frequently-found problems between owners and tenants are damages occurred with furniture and electrical equipment and nobody wants to take responsibility for it," Visit adds.
Another problem is that some tenants tend to ignore the rental payment and silently move out of the place without informing the owner or settling the overdue payment.
------------------
Factors to be considered before renting out a condominium
- Location
You have to see whether there is any demand for rental condos in the location you are in. If you are in Sukhumvit or sub-locations, which still locate along mass transit routes, you still have opportunity to rent out your condo. Anyway, rents are likely to depend on locations.
- Room condition
You should decorate your condo with sufficient facilities and furniture for daily living and make sure the equipment works properly and living atmosphere is nice. The decoration doesn't have to be premium or too luxury yet the rooms should function properly and look neat and clean.
- Your expected yield and cost
You should consider the expected yield by comparing it to the market rate and the cost you have to bear.
On an average, if your condo is bought two years ago and is located on the main Sukhumvit Road, you can enjoy the yield of around 10 per cent. If your unit is bought four or five years ago, your cost is absolutely lower as the prices at that time were cheaper. However, if the yield is below five per cent, it might not be worthwhile to rent out the condo.
- Tenant screening
This is considered crucial. If you have a good tenant, everything will be much easier with less work and headache. You should question the prospective tenants about their family and career background, current jobs, lifestyle and, most importantly, financial status. These are important issues you must first find out before making any decisions as that determine the tenant's payment ability.
- Contract making
You have to be careful when making a contract with your tenant. The contract should cover important issues such as a required deposit (normally two to three months), charges or compensations when furniture and electrical appliances are damaged, responsibility for common asset fees, period of prior notice when the tenant wants to leave and the like.
You should make a list of furniture and electrical appliances, take a photo and keep them well.
Later you need to present those lists to the tenants and ask them to check everything before signing all the papers.
or the common asset fee, normally, the owner should include it in the rent. If the fee is excluded, you have to agree who will pay for it.
A guide to condominium rentals
KRISSANA PARNSOONTHORN
What are you going to do when the inflation reached 8.9 per cent and still keeps rising? This means that your real income diminishes if it doesn't increase at the same rate or even outstrip the inflation.
Meanwhile, during current economic turmoil, most people are now experiencing a major reduction in their real income and also purchasing power.
Since it's impossible to count on employers to compensate for the loss of our income, looking for ways to increase the income will be a smart choice.
Take Amara Saengdao, an accountant at a financial company. She is now enjoying her promising additional income apart from her monthly salary. A year ago, she started to rent out her 80m2 condominium in the Sukhumvit area to a client.
Pumipat Sinacharoen, an executive of a real estate company Bangkok Citismart, agrees with Amara that investing in a good location condominium usually generates healthy returns to investors, beating interest rates and inflation.
"Renting out a condo is a good answer for those who own condos but don't actually live in or those who intentionally buy a condo just to let it out. You can earn between 30,000 to 40,000 baht a month from your one-bedroom condo if it is located on main Sukhumvit Road," he explains.
Sukhumvit is top of the list for condominiums rentals in Bangkok and the reason is because foreigners or expatriates like to live close to the central business district where there are a wide range of facilities ensuring their convenience.
If a condo is near the BTS or MRT, it is priced even higher.
Pumipat, who is also senior vice-president of Asian Property Development, says if the condo is inside the soi, rents are usually lower than those on the main road.
"A supply of condos inside the sois remains high, while demand for these units are low. Thus, the rents are not that expensive. The other areas such as Narathiwat or Ratchadaphisek roads cannot compete with Sukhumvit," he explains.
The returns of this sort of investment is about eight to 10 per cent per year, particularly for the units on the main Sukhumvit Road. "The yields of eight to 10 per cent is considered very good when compared to the saving account, which is currently around 0.75 per cent and one-year fixed-account of 3.75 per cent," he adds.
Typically it is a worthwhile investment, he adds. The investors or owners normally take 10 years for their investments to break-even. Moreover, they are very likely to have upside gains when they sell their units in the future as the property prices always appreciate overtime.
Visit Kunathornkul, managing director of Realty World Alliance, says the CBD area is the first-tier market for expats while Thais prefer other areas and the rents are cheaper.
"The rental market for foreigners has fewer problems than the market for Thais. Foreign customers prefer trust and honesty and they will do everything based on the contract," he explains.
In fact, renting out a condo is easier than a house as you will need lesser time to take care and maintain the condo unit.
However, there is high demand for houses in some specific locations close to international schools. The rule of thumb to rent a house is not so different from a condo.
To prevent any future problem with tenants, Visit says, you should screen them through an interview about family background and work. You should also ask for advanced deposits and prepare a thorough contract that covers all damages and other necessary issues.
"From my experience, most frequently-found problems between owners and tenants are damages occurred with furniture and electrical equipment and nobody wants to take responsibility for it," Visit adds.
Another problem is that some tenants tend to ignore the rental payment and silently move out of the place without informing the owner or settling the overdue payment.
------------------
Factors to be considered before renting out a condominium
- Location
You have to see whether there is any demand for rental condos in the location you are in. If you are in Sukhumvit or sub-locations, which still locate along mass transit routes, you still have opportunity to rent out your condo. Anyway, rents are likely to depend on locations.
- Room condition
You should decorate your condo with sufficient facilities and furniture for daily living and make sure the equipment works properly and living atmosphere is nice. The decoration doesn't have to be premium or too luxury yet the rooms should function properly and look neat and clean.
- Your expected yield and cost
You should consider the expected yield by comparing it to the market rate and the cost you have to bear.
On an average, if your condo is bought two years ago and is located on the main Sukhumvit Road, you can enjoy the yield of around 10 per cent. If your unit is bought four or five years ago, your cost is absolutely lower as the prices at that time were cheaper. However, if the yield is below five per cent, it might not be worthwhile to rent out the condo.
- Tenant screening
This is considered crucial. If you have a good tenant, everything will be much easier with less work and headache. You should question the prospective tenants about their family and career background, current jobs, lifestyle and, most importantly, financial status. These are important issues you must first find out before making any decisions as that determine the tenant's payment ability.
- Contract making
You have to be careful when making a contract with your tenant. The contract should cover important issues such as a required deposit (normally two to three months), charges or compensations when furniture and electrical appliances are damaged, responsibility for common asset fees, period of prior notice when the tenant wants to leave and the like.
You should make a list of furniture and electrical appliances, take a photo and keep them well.
Later you need to present those lists to the tenants and ask them to check everything before signing all the papers.
or the common asset fee, normally, the owner should include it in the rent. If the fee is excluded, you have to agree who will pay for it.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Market mood improves as inflation worries ease
STOCKS & INVESTING
Market mood improves as inflation worries ease
NINA SUEBSUKCHAROEN
There seems to be a sigh of relief in the stock market as it is now becoming clear that inflation will not rise into double digits this year as earlier feared. And while the political situation has not improved, it seems to have come to a standstill, says Poramet Tongbua, Tisco Securities' head of research.
This means the Thai bourse's performance should be fine in the short term, especially when one factors in a decreasing global inflationary trend on the back of oil prices that have dropped from a record high of $147 in July, albeit with a small spike this week.
Inflation in Thailand rose to a 10-year high of 9.2% in July, up from 8.9% the previous month.
Although US inflation continues to be high with prices rising by 5.6% in July, Wall Street is taking events in stride, he believes. Stocks are gaining ground as the asset class of choice in the eyes of American investors because bond yields have dropped and the prices of several commodities have also undergone a needed correction.
While this is encouraging, looking back one cannot fail to notice that many regional stock markets have dropped by as much as 20% since the beginning of the year. ''This is a clear reflection of economic slowdown and inflationary pressure and if you think it has reached the bottom, it has not where the economy is concerned because this is only just starting to slow down.''
Mr Poramet sees signs that economic conditions will get worse in the US, EU and Japan. The bite will be sharper in the EU where the slowdown is just starting while the US has been coping with problems for some time now. Japan is only just beginning to follow the trend.
However, the slowdown of key global economies could last three to four quarters. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan had said that he expected the US housing market to reach the bottom in the middle of next year. ''This is an important factor because when the mortgage market bottoms out it will lead to the bottom of the financial market becoming visible,'' said Mr Poramet.
Even under these shaky circumstances, Thai exports continue to shine, with the growth over the past seven months averaging 23%. But Mr Poramet does not expect this to be sustainable and anticipates that the annual rate to be around 16-17%, a tad less than 18% recorded last year.
While exporters continue to do well, these global developments do mean that earnings and incomes will deteriorate in Thailand and some companies might follow the example of Thai Airways International and offer early retirement to their staff.
However, Mr Poramet is not too worried about layoffs because they are unlikely to have a big impact on the overall economy in light of the tight local job market where the unemployment rate stands at 1.6%.
As for the current government's economic performance, Mr Poramet considers it to be fine but thinks it could have done better.
He does expect the Bank of Thailand to increase its policy interest rate at its next meeting on Aug 27, barring government intervention.
Commercial banks, on the other hand, are strongly driven by market factors and as there is brisk competition, depositors can expect higher rates.
Tisco Securities expects two sectors, consumption and banking, to benefit from continued decreasing inflationary pressure.
''Housing too should see a sizeable number of people returning to buy to go by the sales figures of several listed companies that were still good in the second quarter. The outlook for the third quarter is also not bad at all.''
Mr Poramet expects property prices to track the rise in commodity prices and climb by 3-5%. ''This will help developers maintain their margin up to a point.''
Among other sectors, entertainment looks promising because when consumption bounces back, advertising spending will pick up. ''Although advertising spending has slowed down, if we look at TV channels 3 and 9 it seems they are able to attract a good amount of advertisements. The second half is also the high season for advertising spending.''
Market mood improves as inflation worries ease
NINA SUEBSUKCHAROEN
There seems to be a sigh of relief in the stock market as it is now becoming clear that inflation will not rise into double digits this year as earlier feared. And while the political situation has not improved, it seems to have come to a standstill, says Poramet Tongbua, Tisco Securities' head of research.
This means the Thai bourse's performance should be fine in the short term, especially when one factors in a decreasing global inflationary trend on the back of oil prices that have dropped from a record high of $147 in July, albeit with a small spike this week.
Inflation in Thailand rose to a 10-year high of 9.2% in July, up from 8.9% the previous month.
Although US inflation continues to be high with prices rising by 5.6% in July, Wall Street is taking events in stride, he believes. Stocks are gaining ground as the asset class of choice in the eyes of American investors because bond yields have dropped and the prices of several commodities have also undergone a needed correction.
While this is encouraging, looking back one cannot fail to notice that many regional stock markets have dropped by as much as 20% since the beginning of the year. ''This is a clear reflection of economic slowdown and inflationary pressure and if you think it has reached the bottom, it has not where the economy is concerned because this is only just starting to slow down.''
Mr Poramet sees signs that economic conditions will get worse in the US, EU and Japan. The bite will be sharper in the EU where the slowdown is just starting while the US has been coping with problems for some time now. Japan is only just beginning to follow the trend.
However, the slowdown of key global economies could last three to four quarters. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan had said that he expected the US housing market to reach the bottom in the middle of next year. ''This is an important factor because when the mortgage market bottoms out it will lead to the bottom of the financial market becoming visible,'' said Mr Poramet.
Even under these shaky circumstances, Thai exports continue to shine, with the growth over the past seven months averaging 23%. But Mr Poramet does not expect this to be sustainable and anticipates that the annual rate to be around 16-17%, a tad less than 18% recorded last year.
While exporters continue to do well, these global developments do mean that earnings and incomes will deteriorate in Thailand and some companies might follow the example of Thai Airways International and offer early retirement to their staff.
However, Mr Poramet is not too worried about layoffs because they are unlikely to have a big impact on the overall economy in light of the tight local job market where the unemployment rate stands at 1.6%.
As for the current government's economic performance, Mr Poramet considers it to be fine but thinks it could have done better.
He does expect the Bank of Thailand to increase its policy interest rate at its next meeting on Aug 27, barring government intervention.
Commercial banks, on the other hand, are strongly driven by market factors and as there is brisk competition, depositors can expect higher rates.
Tisco Securities expects two sectors, consumption and banking, to benefit from continued decreasing inflationary pressure.
''Housing too should see a sizeable number of people returning to buy to go by the sales figures of several listed companies that were still good in the second quarter. The outlook for the third quarter is also not bad at all.''
Mr Poramet expects property prices to track the rise in commodity prices and climb by 3-5%. ''This will help developers maintain their margin up to a point.''
Among other sectors, entertainment looks promising because when consumption bounces back, advertising spending will pick up. ''Although advertising spending has slowed down, if we look at TV channels 3 and 9 it seems they are able to attract a good amount of advertisements. The second half is also the high season for advertising spending.''
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