Being Thaksin Shinawatra

COMMENTARY

Being Thaksin Shinawatra

ATIYA ACHAKULWISUT

They said shrewd businessmen think through their game before making the first move. What then is the endgame that shrewd business tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra has in mind?

If I were him - which I am not, or I'd be a billionaire spending life sipping coffee at Harrods before heading to lunch in Hong Kong, instead of toiling with political predictions like this - the endgame would be: They will beg me to come back. So the central question for Thailand's own Sinatra would be just that: how to construct a game plan so that the Thai public ends up thinking what a preferable alternative - more efficient, brighter, more hopeful - he is. Once the former premier succeeds in constructing that collective yearning for his return, then he can be seen to deign to help save us from the mess we have found ourselves in.

Only that would justify his return to the dirty old game of politics which at one time pushed him out and made him appear unwanted. Seen from the endgame point, he has had a brilliant campaign so far. In particular, the choice of Samak Sundaravej to lead the People Power party, a reincarnation of his popular-but-dissolved Thai Rak Thai, is emerging as such a smart move, one that involves high risks but phenomenally high returns. Tactically, he put Mr Samak's right-wing conservative background to good use by wielding it, effectively through Mr Samak's sharp tongue, against those in right-wing, conservative circles who are accusing him of not being right-wing or conservative enough. With Mr Samak, Mr Thaksin also scored in the confuse-and-rule trick. While many people still hold on to the '70s notion of the ideological divide - left/right, conservative/progressive, traditional/liberal - a communications capitalist and global citizen like Mr Thaksin knows these lines no longer hold true in many aspects of life in the post-modern globalised era. A person can come from a conservative background but subscribe to a liberal economic model.

As purists brooded over the unlikely marriage between the ultra right-wing Mr Samak and the remains of his once-were-leftist warriors from the TRT days, Mr Thaksin convinced his allies with what's more important to them than ideology and he has already reaped his practical gains from the election's result. That's half-way down the game plan already and it's no surprise Mr Thaksin has set the date for his return. But he would maintain his vow not to re-enter politics yet. It is true that luck has been on Mr Thaksin's side because the old ginger cabinet has performed so poorly that the term "poorly" should be redefined, simply to make the word truer to what it should convey in this circumstance. If this were a game of football, Sinatra's opposing squad simply made its own goal, not once but time and again, right up to injury time when no effort, however much, could rectify the damage.

Although the Surayud government has unwittingly played into Mr Thaksin's game of making itself such a worse choice compared to him, it is still not a strong enough pretext for his political comeback. Nor is the election victory of the PPP, which has stated as its policy the imperative to defend Mr Thaksin's honour. What our ex needs is a pretence of sacrifice. And he might actually have it. This transition period is bound to be difficult. The new coalition will inevitably anger one or the other interest groups with either what it will or won't do: amend the constitution, or not; pardon the 111 banned executives of the TRT, or not; build a nuclear power plant, or not. New conflicts will be piled upon old, unresolved ones; the weight of which would test the solidity of the shaky, multi-party coalition. And don't forget the value of Mr Samak's ever-so-useful sharp tongue and unique personality. Once he becomes head of government - get used to the honorific Prime Minister Samak - his full powers will be unleashed. By that time, I bet many members of the public, young and old, rural and urban, will be cowering. They will be begging. By that time, the seat would be warm already.

Atiya Achakulwisut is Editorial Pages Editor, Bangkok Post.